Monday, April 02, 2007

Stock market and economic overheating

Among the around 1,500 listed companies in Shenzhen and Shanghai, 20% have doubled their market value over the past three months. The P/E ratio (price/earning) of more than 30% of them reaches as high as 100 in the first season of this year. Last week, the daily turnout was 200 billioin yuan. The total turnover of this season is 7.6 trillion yuan, 85% of the total volume in 2006. Yet many blue chips did not go up and some even went down. But for some reasons, many small companies attracted investors at lot. It is believed that this is the sign of a coming dramatic adjustment.

The economic overheating seems to continue. According to the State Information Centre, GDP of the first season is 11%, higher than expected.

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9 Comments:

At 5:58 PM, Blogger Rocko said...

I like your blog, as I stayed in Shanghai for 4 years until 2006 and can relate to a lot of your points.
Do you believe that the Chinese stock markets are entirely manipulated by the government? How did the Shenzhen stock index do while the rest of the world had bear markets in 2001?

 
At 8:25 PM, Blogger hegelchong said...

As far as I know, the Shenzhen stock index went down in 2001 too. But I don't believe that the stock markets in China are totally manipulated by the Beijing government. The local governments are getting involved in many companies, particularly those state enterprises. They work with capital closely. But the picture is so complicated that I wonder if there is anyone who could tell the whole story.

 
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