Sunday, April 08, 2007

Xiaowu / Media is not reliable: Comment on “the strongest nail house”(Part II)

Written by Xiaowu

Part I... ...

There is another point noteworthy. The Xinhua Net (a media mouthpiece of the central government) followed the local media to massively cover this story. This not normal. ...

This demonstrates a common sense that the the local governments did not respond to this incident in the same way as the central government. The money from land auction went to the pocket of the local government. The central government didn't have much and plays the role of onlooker who is happy to see how the local government turned this incident into a scandal. When the local government became ugly under the spotlight of media, the central government would come out to say a few words in high profile and solve the problem. Then the local government and the victim would be like a defendant and the central government would become an arbiter. The arbiter's power would shift from the local government to the central government in a cleverly way. However, the local government is not stupid and has the machine of dictatorship and the excuse of “public interest”. If it has determination, it could solve it immediately.

After the Xinhua Net followed up this story for three days, the local government could not tolerate any more. The local government publicly stated that it would not satisfy the unreasonable demand. And some “legal authorities” further talked about the priority of public interest to private interest. The response of the local government was immediate. Media realized that their influence was not as effective as they imagined... ...

The media who committed in civil rights previously changed their tone and no longer published the photo of the woman owner shouting and holding the Constitution for civil rights. They covered the views of the “legal authorities” and government officials. Everything has changed. Just a few days, the problem was solved and the bulldozer came in. The human right heroine, who insisted on owning this house, obstinately clinging to the house, holding the Constitution, still cares about her own life. The couple left the house in a hurry. “Problem has been solved satisfactorily”. The farce ended.

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2012 Stats139 G, .326/.399/.564, 30 HR, 83 RBI, 129 Runs, 27 2B, 8 3B, 67 BB, 139 K, 49 SB, 10.0 WARWhy we expect regressionI saved Trout for the end for two reasons. One, I imagine he will be the most controversial player on this list and it would likely take away from the rest of the piece. Two, to make a point about how regression isn't necessarily a bad word.Also, Trout's inclusion on this list has nothing to do with the ridiculous controversy surrounding him showing up to camp back in February weighing 240 pounds. He is 21-years-old and a freak athlete who is built like a linebacker, runs like a wide receiver and happens to play baseball.A slight weight gain in the offseason for Trout is not a big deal.As far as Trout on the field in 2013, how do you follow up the greatest rookie season in baseball history and one of the best single-season performances in baseball history?The short answer is: You probably can't. I add the word probably in there just because Trout is so gifted in every facet of the game that you can't put it past him to improve upon what he did in 2012.But every single projection you look at for Trout, with the exception of Bill James', shows a dropoff for him this season.Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projection (subscription required) has Trout hitting .288/.354/.467 with 21 home runs, 77 [url=]wholesale nike shoes[/url] RBI and 45 stolen bases.Even the most optimistic projection for Trout onFangraphs, which lists five different projections from various sources, comes from Bill James. The sabermetric guru has Trout hitting .325/.402/.564 with 30 home runs, 87 RBI and 53 stolen bases.The other projection systems all have Trout being worth between 6.5-8.6 Wins Above Replacement. If Trout falls into that range this season, he will still be one of the five best players in baseball and a serious MVP candidate again.Yet those projections still have Trout taking a step back from his historically great debut season. Even if Trout is worth 70 percent of the value he was in 2012, he is still the best player in the game. It just doesn't quite match what he did last season.Where we run into a problem with Trout that we don't with the other players on this list is track record. Trout could very well end up going all Barry Bonds on us and posting 12 Wins Above Replacement.You just can't predict that because the list of 12-WAR seasons in baseball history is limited to Babe Ruth, Rogers Hornsby and Carl Yastrzemski (per players had some kind of track record where you could feel comfortable predicting them to have a season like that and not look like an idiot.Trout, as great as he is, has just one full season under his belt. He is also just 21-years-old. We have never seen any 20-year-old do the things he did last season while playing in just 139 games.No one expects Trout to be anything less than great in 2013 nor should they. But expecting him to be asgreat as he was last season might be asking a bit too much.If you want to talk about players on the list or who you feel should be on the list, or just want to discuss baseball, hit me up on Twitter.Follow @adamwells1985

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